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<div class="WordSection1">
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="NL" style="font-size:11.0pt;mso-fareast-language:EN-US">Beste Anton, dag allemaal,<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="NL" style="font-size:11.0pt;mso-fareast-language:EN-US"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="NL" style="font-size:11.0pt;mso-fareast-language:EN-US">Dank voor het delen van jullie behoefte aan duiding van de stabiele referentieraming van OCW en fijn dat jullie actief meekijken naar de beschikbare informatie. De jaarlijkse
prognose van het ministerie van OCW van het aantal studenten roept inderdaad vraagtekens op. Hoe kan het zo zijn dat OCW voorspelt dat tot en met 2028 het aantal studenten in Nederland blijft schommelen tussen de 341.700 en 342.700?
<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="NL" style="font-size:11.0pt;mso-fareast-language:EN-US"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="NL" style="font-size:11.0pt;mso-fareast-language:EN-US">Iedereen kan namelijk zelf inzien dat (<i>zie bronnen onder deze mail</i>):<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<ul style="margin-top:0cm" type="disc">
<li class="MsoNormal" style="mso-list:l3 level1 lfo4"><span lang="NL" style="font-size:11.0pt;mso-fareast-language:EN-US">De
<b>demografische opbouw</b> van Nederland een vrij snelle daling van het aantal jongeren in de komende jaren laat zien;<o:p></o:p></span></li><li class="MsoNormal" style="mso-list:l3 level1 lfo4"><span lang="NL" style="font-size:11.0pt;mso-fareast-language:EN-US">De directe invloed van de
<b>Wet Internationalisering in Balans (WIB) </b>op de instroom van sommige programma’s heel groot zal zijn.<o:p></o:p></span></li><li class="MsoNormal" style="mso-list:l3 level1 lfo4"><span lang="NL" style="font-size:11.0pt;mso-fareast-language:EN-US">En dat er nu al aanzienlijk
<b>minder internationale studenten</b> ervoor kiezen om in Nederland te komen studeren, nog voordat de WIB is ingevoerd.<o:p></o:p></span></li><li class="MsoNormal" style="mso-list:l3 level1 lfo4"><span lang="NL" style="font-size:11.0pt;mso-fareast-language:EN-US">En om het maar meteen op onszelf te betrekken, dat er een dalende trend is in het aantal studenten dat voor een
<b>N&T profiel</b> kiest.<o:p></o:p></span></li><li class="MsoNormal" style="mso-list:l3 level1 lfo4"><span lang="NL" style="font-size:11.0pt;mso-fareast-language:EN-US">Daarbij komt dat
<b>Amsterdam</b> ook nog eens de moeilijkste huisvestingssituatie heeft, en studenten daarom de VU en de UvA vaker mijden.<o:p></o:p></span></li></ul>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="NL" style="font-size:11.0pt;mso-fareast-language:EN-US"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="NL" style="font-size:11.0pt;mso-fareast-language:EN-US">Wij hebben onze eigen Sherlock, Raphael, eropuit gestuurd om navraag te doen bij UNL waarom de referentieraming van bovenstaande aspecten blijkbaar geen last heeft. Het
antwoord was nogal zorgelijk. In het kort:<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<ul style="margin-top:0cm" type="disc">
<li class="MsoNormal" style="mso-list:l0 level1 lfo5"><span lang="NL" style="font-size:11.0pt;mso-fareast-language:EN-US">De referentieraming is
<b>beleidsarm</b>, er wordt geen rekening gehouden met mogelijke beleidskeuzes in de toekomst (zoals WIB)<o:p></o:p></span></li><li class="MsoNormal" style="mso-list:l0 level1 lfo5"><span lang="NL" style="font-size:11.0pt;mso-fareast-language:EN-US">De referentieraming trekt de trend van het jaar daarvoor (1 oktobertelling 2022 tot 1 oktobertelling 2023) direct door naar de toekomst,
de trend wordt dus <b>gebaseerd op 1 jaar</b>. <o:p></o:p></span></li><li class="MsoNormal" style="mso-list:l0 level1 lfo5"><span lang="NL" style="font-size:11.0pt;mso-fareast-language:EN-US">En er is ook een
<b>politieke reden</b>: De referentieraming wordt overigens direct gebruikt om te bepalen hoeveel het onderwijsbudget is vanuit OCW. Bij een daling van het aantal studenten, vindt er dus ook een daling plaats in het totale onderwijsbudget vanuit min. OCW.
<o:p></o:p></span></li></ul>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="NL" style="font-size:11.0pt;mso-fareast-language:EN-US">Dit is behoorlijk misleidend maar wel de trend waar heel academisch Nederland op vaart.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="NL" style="font-size:11.0pt;mso-fareast-language:EN-US"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="NL" style="font-size:11.0pt;mso-fareast-language:EN-US">Ik hoop dat ik je hiermee een beetje heb kunnen overtuigen van onze voorspelling dat het aantal studenten niet gelijk zal blijven maar zal dalen. We gaan zeker met OCW
in gesprek over de validiteit en het belang van de referentieraming.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="NL" style="font-size:11.0pt;mso-fareast-language:EN-US"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="NL" style="font-size:11.0pt;mso-fareast-language:EN-US">Met vriendelijke groet,<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="NL" style="font-size:11.0pt;mso-fareast-language:EN-US"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="NL" style="font-size:11.0pt;mso-fareast-language:EN-US">Pieter
<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="NL" style="font-size:11.0pt;mso-fareast-language:EN-US"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><u><span lang="NL" style="font-size:11.0pt;mso-fareast-language:EN-US">Bronnen</span></u><span lang="NL" style="font-size:11.0pt;mso-fareast-language:EN-US">:<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="NL" style="font-size:11.0pt;mso-fareast-language:EN-US"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="NL" style="font-size:11.0pt;mso-fareast-language:EN-US"><img width="546" height="511" style="width:5.6875in;height:5.3229in" id="Picture_x0020_8" src="cid:image001.png@01DB3CDC.6A507110" alt="A graph with blue and pink lines
Description automatically generated"></span><span lang="NL" style="font-size:11.0pt;mso-fareast-language:EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="NL" style="font-size:11.0pt;mso-fareast-language:EN-US"><a href="https://www.ocwincijfers.nl/sectoren/hoger-onderwijs/kengetallen-wetenschappelijk-onderwijs/studenten/prognose-aantal-studenten-wo">https://www.ocwincijfers.nl/sectoren/hoger-onderwijs/kengetallen-wetenschappelijk-onderwijs/studenten/prognose-aantal-studenten-wo</a>
<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:11.0pt;mso-fareast-language:EN-US"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:11.0pt;mso-fareast-language:EN-US"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:11.0pt;mso-fareast-language:EN-US">
<img border="0" width="601" height="432" style="width:6.2604in;height:4.5in" id="Picture_x0020_7" src="cid:image002.png@01DB3CDC.6A507110" alt="A chart of different colors
Description automatically generated"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:11.0pt;mso-fareast-language:EN-US"><a href="https://www.cbs.nl/nl-nl/visualisaties/dashboard-bevolking/bevolkingspiramide">https://www.cbs.nl/nl-nl/visualisaties/dashboard-bevolking/bevolkingspiramide</a><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:11.0pt;mso-fareast-language:EN-US"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:11.0pt;mso-fareast-language:EN-US"><img border="0" width="601" height="264" style="width:6.2604in;height:2.75in" id="Picture_x0020_6" src="cid:image003.png@01DB3CDC.6A507110" alt="A yellow and green rectangular object with black text
Description automatically generated"></span><span style="font-size:11.0pt;mso-fareast-language:EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:11.0pt;mso-fareast-language:EN-US"><a href="https://www.universiteitenvannederland.nl/actueel/nieuws/veel-minder-internationale-studenten-naar-universiteiten">https://www.universiteitenvannederland.nl/actueel/nieuws/veel-minder-internationale-studenten-naar-universiteiten</a><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:11.0pt;mso-fareast-language:EN-US"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:11.0pt;mso-fareast-language:EN-US"><a href="https://vu.nl/nl/nieuws/2024/voorlopige-inschrijfcijfers-unl-laten-daling-internationale-studenten-zien">https://vu.nl/nl/nieuws/2024/voorlopige-inschrijfcijfers-unl-laten-daling-internationale-studenten-zien</a><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:11.0pt;mso-fareast-language:EN-US"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:11.0pt;mso-fareast-language:EN-US"><a href="https://www.uva.nl/content/nieuws/nieuwsberichten/2024/11/aantal-nieuwe-internationale-bachelorstudenten-aan-uva-daalt.html?cb&cb">https://www.uva.nl/content/nieuws/nieuwsberichten/2024/11/aantal-nieuwe-internationale-bachelorstudenten-aan-uva-daalt.html?cb&cb</a><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:11.0pt;mso-fareast-language:EN-US"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:11.0pt;mso-fareast-language:EN-US"><a href="https://nos.nl/artikel/2544311-minder-internationale-studenten-naar-nederland-op-vu-bijna-kwart-minder">https://nos.nl/artikel/2544311-minder-internationale-studenten-naar-nederland-op-vu-bijna-kwart-minder</a><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:11.0pt;mso-fareast-language:EN-US"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
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Description automatically generated"></span><span style="font-size:11.0pt;mso-fareast-language:EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:11.0pt;mso-fareast-language:EN-US"><a href="https://www.ocwincijfers.nl/sectoren/voortgezet-onderwijs/leerlingen/profielen-in-het-vo">https://www.ocwincijfers.nl/sectoren/voortgezet-onderwijs/leerlingen/profielen-in-het-vo</a><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="NL" style="font-size:11.0pt;mso-fareast-language:EN-US"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom:12.0pt"><b><span style="color:black">From:
</span></b><span style="color:black">_list_opleidingsdirecteuren.beta-bounces <opleidingsdirecteuren.beta-bounces@listserver.vu.nl> on behalf of Feenstra, K.A. (Anton) <k.a.feenstra@vu.nl><br>
<b>Date: </b>Thursday, 21 November 2024 at 16:30<br>
<b>To: </b>Karssen, M. (Mareanne) <m.karssen@vu.nl>, _list_opleidingsdirecteuren.beta <opleidingsdirecteuren.beta@listserver.vu.nl><br>
<b>Subject: </b>Re: [Opleidingsdirecteuren.beta] Agendapunten OD-beraden december 2024<o:p></o:p></span></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal">Hoi Mareanne,</p>
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<p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal">We hebben al een aantal keer op verschillende plekken gehoord dat de ramingen voor de studenteninstroom een dalende trend laten zien, met iets in de orde van een procent of tien.</p>
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<p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal">Maar ik vind bij OCW zelf de volgende prognoses:</p>
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<p class="MsoNormal"><a href="https://www.ocwincijfers.nl/sectoren/hoger-onderwijs/kengetallen-wetenschappelijk-onderwijs/studenten/prognose-aantal-studenten-wo">https://www.ocwincijfers.nl/sectoren/hoger-onderwijs/kengetallen-wetenschappelijk-onderwijs/studenten/prognose-aantal-studenten-wo</a></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal">Deze laten een gevarieerd beeld zien, maar nergens veranderingen van meer dan 2% of zo.</p>
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<p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal">Het lijkt me voor de planning van onze opleidingen wel goed om te weten hoe dit nu precies zit. Is er meer informatie die we in het OD-beraad hierover zouden kunnen krijgen en bespreken?</p>
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<p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal">Groetjes,</p>
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<p class="MsoNormal">Anton.</p>
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<p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal">On 20/11/2024 12:44, Karssen, M. (Mareanne) wrote:</p>
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<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif;color:black">Beste OD’s,</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif;color:black"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif;color:black">De volgende OD-beraden staan op 3 en 5 december as. gepland. Als agendapunten hebben we in ieder geval:</span></p>
<ul style="margin-top:0cm" type="disc">
<li class="MsoNormal" style="color:black;mso-list:l2 level1 lfo3"><span style="font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif"> Besluit CvB maatwerk Midterms</span><o:p></o:p></li><li class="MsoNormal" style="color:black;mso-list:l2 level1 lfo3"><span style="font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif"> AI in Onderwijs</span><o:p></o:p></li><li class="MsoNormal" style="color:black;mso-list:l2 level1 lfo3"><span style="font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif"> Stand van zaken Wet internationalisering in Balans</span><o:p></o:p></li></ul>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif;color:black">Zijn er punten die jullie graag zouden bespreken c.q. waar je meer informatie over zou willen ontvangen?</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif;color:black">Als je punten hebt, kun je dat ons uiterlijk 27 november laten weten? Dat kan via een mail aan
</span><a href="mailto:m.karssen@vu.nl"><span style="font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif">m.karssen@vu.nl</span></a><span style="font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif;color:black">.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif;color:black"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif;color:black">Vriendelijke groet,</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif;color:black"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif;color:black">Mareanne</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif;color:black"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:8.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif;color:black">Mareanne Karssen <br>
Onderwijsdirecteur </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:8.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif;color:black"><br>
Faculteit der Bètawetenschappen</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height:14.65pt"><span style="font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif;color:black"><img border="0" width="312" height="63" style="width:3.25in;height:.6562in" id="Picture_x0020_1" src="cid:part1.0cbMF8ZH.CmFmXCfS@vu.nl"></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:8.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif;color:black">T +31 20 59 86875 b.g.g. +31 20 59 87008 |
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<p><o:p> </o:p></p>
<pre>-- </pre>
<pre>Groetjes,</pre>
<pre><o:p> </o:p></pre>
<pre>Anton</pre>
<pre> _____________ _______________________________________________________</pre>
<pre>| | |</pre>
<pre>| _ _ ___,| K. Anton Feenstra |</pre>
<pre>| / \ / \'| | | IBIVU/Bioinformatics - Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam |</pre>
<pre>|( | )| | | De Boelelaan 1111 - 1081 HV Amsterdam - Netherlands |</pre>
<pre>| \_/ \_/ | | | Tel: +312059 87783 - skype: kafeenstra - room NU 12A31| </pre>
<pre>| | <a href="mailto:Feenstra@few.vu.nl">Feenstra@few.vu.nl</a> - <a href="http://www.few.vu.nl/~feenstra/">www.few.vu.nl/~feenstra/</a> |</pre>
<pre>| | "These are Ideas, They are Not Lies" (Magnapop) | </pre>
<pre>|_____________|_______________________________________________________|</pre>
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