[Im4ca-wp1.beta] Fwd: IM4CA Forecast Product — Preview & Feedback Request

[Röckmann, T. (Thomas)]

Begin forwarded message:

From: Simon Bittner <simon.bittner at uni-bremen.de>
Subject: IM4CA Forecast Product — Preview & Feedback Request
Date: 19 May 2026 at 14:17:46 CEST
To: Konstantin Gerilowski <gerilows at iup.physik.uni-bremen.de>, "Sander HOUWELING (SRON)" <s.houweling at sron.nl>, "Röckmann, T. (Thomas)" <t.rockmann at uu.nl>, Jean-daniel Paris <jean-daniel.paris at lsce.ipsl.fr>, "Velandia Salinas, N. (Nataly)" <n.velandiasalinas at uu.nl>, Iancu Stefan <iancu.stefan at incas.ro>, Ardelean Magdalena <ardelean.magdalena at incas.ro>, "Geissbühler, D.C. (Dylan)" <d.c.geissbuhler at uu.nl>
Cc: Mihalis Vrekoussis <mvrekous at uni-bremen.de>, Alex Poulidis <alepou at uni-bremen.de>, Yuna Katsuyama | Universitaet Bremen <yuna at uni-bremen.de>

Sommige mensen die dit bericht hebben ontvangen, ontvangen niet vaak e-mail van simon.bittner at uni-bremen.de. Ontdek waarom dit belangrijk is<https://aka.ms/LearnAboutSenderIdentification>

CAUTION: This email originated from outside of Utrecht University. Do not click links or open attachments unless you recognize the sender and know the content is safe.


Hi everyone,

I didn’t have a mailing list on hand. Feel free to forward it to everyone involved. We have been testing our forecast product and are still ironing out a few final details, but we wanted to share it now so you can assess what additional information might help improve on-site decision-making during the campaign.

Here is a brief overview of what we currently provide:

  1.  We use ICON-EU data to drive WRF, dynamically downscaling the meteorological fields to 1.3 × 1.3 km grid spacing. These fields then drive FLEXPART-WRF, which simulates CH4 plume dispersion on a 700 × 700 m grid. No CH₄ background is included.
  2.  The CH4 plume simulation does not include complex chemistry — only wet deposition is considered.
  3.  As source locations and emission strengths are not well constrained, we use virtual sources in the forecast. All sources are assumed to emit 1 kt/year, with potential locations derived from flight boxes, cluster centres, and E-PRTR (2024). The absolute values are therefore not representative, but plume locations, diffusion patterns, and potential build-up should be well captured for the virtual sources. Additional sources can be added easily if needed.

Output is available via two channels: (Research drive: https://vu.data.surf.nl/f/249145670 (only works with access), Website: https://aether.uni-bremen.de/forecast/) and consists of KMZ files (usable in Google Earth Pro) and a PDF file. KMZ files contain CH₄ mixing ratios at different altitudes, CH₄ vertical column density, and total cloud cover, while the PDF overview shows average conditions over 3h/6h time windows.
We plan to upload new files each evening around 18:00 (EEST) for the following days. If you would like to receive a notification when files are uploaded, we can add everyone to a mailing list for the duration of the campaign. Our website will get more resources soon, so for now, be patient when downloading from there :D

Please have a look at the KMZ files and PDF, and let us know what plots or zoom regions would be most useful for day-to-day decision-making. If possible, I would like to collect suggestions and feedback during the meeting next week.

Thanks a lot. We look forward to your feedback!

Best
Simon & Alex

-------------- next part --------------
An HTML attachment was scrubbed...
URL: <https://listserver.vu.nl/pipermail/im4ca-wp1.beta/attachments/20260520/47434f6d/attachment-0001.html>