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<p>Dear All,</p>
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This is a kind reminder that <font face="Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif,serif,EmojiFont" size="2" color="black"><span style="font-size: 11pt;">the next meeting of the (International) Bayes club will take place on the </span></font><font face="Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif,serif,EmojiFont" size="2" color="black"><span style="font-size: 11pt;"><b>3rd
of December</b></span></font><font face="Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif,serif,EmojiFont" size="2" color="black"><span style="font-size: 11pt;"><b> (this Thursday)</b></span></font><font face="Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif,serif,EmojiFont" size="2" color="black"><span style="font-size: 11pt;"> from
3 pm until 5 pm. We will have two speakers: </span></font><font face="Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif,serif,EmojiFont" size="2" color="#212121"><span style="font-size: 16px;">Sergios Agapiou (U Cyprus)</span></font><font face="Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif,serif,EmojiFont" size="2" color="black"><span style="font-size: 11pt;"> and </span></font><font face="Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif,serif,EmojiFont" size="2" color="#212121"><span style="font-size: 16px;">Pierre
Jacob (Harvard)</span></font><font face="Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif,serif,EmojiFont" size="2" color="black"><span style="font-size: 11pt;">, please find below the titles and the abstracts of the talks</span></font><font face="Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif,serif,EmojiFont" size="2" color="black"><span style="font-size: 11pt;">.
The seminar will be on zoom:</span></font></div>
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<font face="Calibri,Helvetica,sans-serif,serif,EmojiFont" size="2"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><font face="Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif,serif,EmojiFont" size="2" color="black"><span style="font-size: 11pt;">Topic: The (International) Bayes Club</span></font><font face="Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif,serif,EmojiFont" size="1" color="#747487"><span style="font-size: 12px;"> </span></font></span></font></div>
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<font face="Calibri,Helvetica,sans-serif,serif,EmojiFont" size="2"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><font face="Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif,serif,EmojiFont" size="2" color="black"><span style="font-size: 11pt;">Time: </span></font><font face="Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif,serif,EmojiFont" size="2" color="black"><span style="font-size: 11pt;">Dec</span></font><font face="Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif,serif,EmojiFont" size="2" color="black"><span style="font-size: 11pt;"> </span></font><font face="Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif,serif,EmojiFont" size="2" color="black"><span style="font-size: 11pt;">3</span></font><font face="Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif,serif,EmojiFont" size="2" color="black"><span style="font-size: 11pt;">,
2020 03:00 PM Amsterdam</span></font></span></font></div>
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<font face="Calibri,Helvetica,sans-serif,serif,EmojiFont" size="2"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><font face="Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif,serif,EmojiFont" size="3" color="black"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">https://vu-live.zoom.us/j/93507519282</span></font><font face="wf_segoe-ui_normal,Segoe UI,Segoe WP,Tahoma,Arial,sans-serif,serif,EmojiFont" size="1" color="#747487"><span style="font-size: 12px;"><br>
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<font face="Calibri,Helvetica,sans-serif,serif,EmojiFont" size="2"><span style="font-size: 16px;"> </span></font><span style="font-family: Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif, serif, EmojiFont;">Meeting ID: 935 0751 9282</span></div>
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<font face="Calibri,Helvetica,sans-serif,serif,EmojiFont" size="2"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><font face="Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif,serif,EmojiFont">Passcode: d7eHf@</font></span></font></div>
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<font face="Calibri,Helvetica,sans-serif,serif,EmojiFont" size="2"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><font face="Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif,serif,EmojiFont">3pm Speaker: </font><font face="Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif,serif,EmojiFont" size="2" color="#212121"><span style="font-size: 16px;">Sergios
Agapiou (U Cyprus)</span></font></span></font></div>
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<div style="margin: 0px;"><font face="Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif,serif,EmojiFont" size="2" color="#212121"><span style="font-size: 15px;">Title: Gauss versus Laplace rates of contraction under Besov regularity</span></font></div>
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<div style="margin: 0px;"><font face="Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif,serif,EmojiFont" size="2" color="#212121"><span style="font-size: 15px;">We will discuss recent results on rates of contraction with a family of priors with tails between Laplace and Gaussian,
termed p-exponential priors. We will focus on the white noise model and will discuss upper bounds on the rate of contraction under Besov regularity of the truth, in L_2-loss. We will use alpha-regular priors and will see that Laplace priors achieve the same
and often better rates than Gaussian ones. In particular, we will see that for spatially inhomogeneous unknown functions, that is functions which are smooth in some areas but rough in other areas, Gaussian priors appear to be suboptimal. On the other hand
Laplace priors achieve better rates, which can be minimax when the prior is appropriately calibrated. </span></font></div>
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<div style="margin: 0px;"><font face="Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif,serif,EmojiFont" size="2" color="#212121"><span style="font-size: 15px;">This is joint work with Masoumeh Dashti and Tapio Helin</span></font></div>
<div style="margin: 0px;"><a href="https://arxiv.org/abs/1811.12244" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" id="LPlnk48343" previewremoved="true"><font face="wf_segoe-ui_normal,Segoe UI,Segoe WP,Tahoma,Arial,sans-serif,serif,EmojiFont" size="2"><span id="LPlnk48343" style="font-size: 15px;"><font face="Helvetica Neue,serif,EmojiFont"><span id="LPlnk48343"><font face="Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif,serif,EmojiFont">https://arxiv.org/abs/1811.12244</font></span></font></span></font></a><font face="Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif,serif,EmojiFont" size="2" color="black"><span style="font-size: 15px;"> (to
appear in Bernoulli).</span></font><font face="wf_segoe-ui_normal,Segoe UI,Segoe WP,Tahoma,Arial,sans-serif,serif,EmojiFont" size="2" color="#212121"><span style="font-size: 15px;"><br>
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<font face="Calibri,Helvetica,sans-serif,serif,EmojiFont" size="2"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><font face="Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif,serif,EmojiFont" size="2"><span style="font-size: 16px;">4pm Speaker: </span></font><font face="Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif,serif,EmojiFont" size="2" color="#212121"><span style="font-size: 16px;">Pierre
Jacob (Harvard)</span></font><br>
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<font face="Calibri,Helvetica,sans-serif,serif,EmojiFont" size="2"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><font face="Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif,serif,EmojiFont" size="2" color="#212121"><span style="font-size: 15px;">Title: A Gibbs sampler for a class of random convex
polytopes</span></font><br>
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<font face="Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif,serif,EmojiFont" size="2" color="#212121"><span style="font-size: 15px;">Abstract: We present a Gibbs sampler for the Dempster--Shafer (DS) approach to statistical inference in the setting of for Categorical distributions,
with arbitrary numbers of categories and observations. The DS framework extends the Bayesian approach, allows in particular the use of partial prior information, and yields three-valued uncertainty assessments (p,q,r) representing probabilities "for", "agains",
and "don't know" about formal assertions of interest. However DS gives rise to computational challenges even in settings as classical and seemingly simple as Categorical distributions for count data. The proposed algorithm targets the distribution of a class
of random convex polytopes which encapsulate the DS inference. The validity of the sampler relies on an equivalence between the iterative constraints of some vertex configuration and the non-negativity of cycles in a fully connected directed graph. Experiments
illustrate the output of the algorithm in the setting of 2x2 contingency tables.</span></font><br>
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<font face="Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif,serif,EmojiFont" size="2" color="#212121"><span style="font-size: 15px;">This is joint work with Ruobin Gong, Paul T. Edlefsen & Arthur P. Dempster and a technical report is available at </span></font><a href="https://arxiv.org/abs/1910.11953" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" id="LPlnk641180" previewremoved="true"><span id="LPlnk641180"><font face="wf_segoe-ui_normal,Segoe UI,Segoe WP,Tahoma,Arial,sans-serif,serif,EmojiFont" size="2"><span id="LPlnk641180" style="font-size: 15px;"><font face="Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif,serif,EmojiFont">https://arxiv.org/abs/1910.11953</font></span></font></span></a><br>
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<font face="Calibri,Helvetica,sans-serif,serif,EmojiFont" size="2"><span style="font-size: 16px;">Best wishes,</span></font></div>
<font face="Calibri,Helvetica,sans-serif,serif,EmojiFont" size="2" style="font-family: Calibri, Helvetica, sans-serif, serif, EmojiFont;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">Botond</span></font>
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